Let's overturn these tables

I’m always interested to read about trends and expectations for churches, and for the surounding secular culture.

I think it makes sense to use whatever infoirmation we can find to understand the times, so we can start to imagine how the church can best represent the kingdom of God to the world.

So here’s one person’s observations of likely trends in churches this year. His predictions are North American based, but will be at least partially relevant in Australia and elsewhere.

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Carey Nieuwhof

Carey Nieuwhof is a Canadian pastor and church leadership guru who runs training courses and resources on church leadership. For the last few years he has begun the year with predictions of trends the church will experience in the coming year.

I have found his observations helpful in the past, and his predictions for 2023 and 2024 are worth noting. (I won’t discuss them all, but just what I think most useful.)

Grow or perish?

Nieuwhof observes that in USA, only 12% of churches were stable in their attendances. 54% are declining and 33% growing. With overall attendances falling, growth in some churches must come because “churches that are growing are picking up people from churches that aren’t growing”.

This fits with some data for Sydney Australia, where only 13% of churches had stable attendance, 69% were declining, and the smaller churches are declining the fastest. Likewise in UK, most denominations are in decline, but there are a number of congregations where attendances are increasing.

What to do

The lesson Carey draws is that if a church isn’t growing, or planting churches, it needs to make some significant changes, and quickly! Standing still probably means going backwards.

The changing of the guard

Just four years ago, Nieuwhof reports, Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) outnumbered both Gen X (born 1965-1980) and Millennials (born 1981-1996) in the church. But now, the positions have been reversed, and Millennials are the most numerous and Boomer numbers are declining. Apparently many Boomers didn’t return to church after the Covid pandemic.

It isn’t the same elsewhere. Millennials are overtaking Boomers in the Australian population, but Boomers are still much more likely to be in church. It is similar in the UK.

What to do

Nieuwhof says North American churches should be looking to better engage with Millennials, and the younger Gen Z (born 1997-2012), who have a different approach to church membership and discipleship. He says these younger church members are likely to be more committed and intense in their faith, but less likely to be routinely involved in church via regular giving, volunteering or pew-sitting. He suggests different approaches are needed to challenge and excite them and provide opportunities for more radical discipleship.

He also suggests that, if it wants to really engage these younger Christians, the church will have to become more personal and authentic and less performance; more heart and less head; more passionate and serving in the community and less inward-looking.

It will be important to start to share leadership with Millennials and Gen Z, and involve them more in decisions that affect them.

The lower numbers of younger Christians in the Aussie and UK churches should only intensify the reasons to follow Nieuwhof’s suggestions.

A new kind of pastor?

Carey observes that a new type of megachurch pastor is emerging, to replace the older style pastors: more consensus-based rather than autocratic; more interested in serving and less interested in publicity; more focused on the future rather than what worked well in the past.

I’d rather hope that these same traits would appy to all pastors. Servant leaders, sharing ministry with a team, humble.

The impact of the internet

Nieuwhof notes that the internet is impacting churches in several ways.

• Online services are now a thing. Many people can watch their own church online, which can be more convenient when busy, sick or it is difficult to get transport. Some churches attract hundreds of people who aren’t members, because of the quality of the service.
• Most of us are comfortable with Zoom meetings. They can facilitate organising and can enable fellowship groups to meet, whether regularly or occasionally.
• Information is widely available via podcasts, written and video resources, online Bibles and commentaries, etc.
• Churches can use websites and apps to contact people, galvanise prayer, keep people informed, etc.

He notes that some pastors are wary, worried that online attendance may reduce personal involvement, and better quality services or sermons elsewhere may reduce attendance. But he argues that the benefits far outweigh the disadvantages, for digital connection can be the gateway to personal contact if done well.

What to do

He therefore recommends churches plan how to use a digital platform to foster discipleship and then invest the budget and personnel to make it happen. He goes so far as to say: “If you don’t have a digital delivery system for your discipleship strategy, you don’t have a discipleship strategy.”

But it is worth noting that online or digital ministry has economies of scale, and smaller churches will be less able to set it up. Perhaps this is another cause of smaller churches dying by losing members to larger churches.

Some things Nieuwhof doesn’t say

Carey’s predictions are very North American based, and seem to be solidly based on the assumption of a regular church with a senior pastor and team, meeting in a church building on a Sunday, where attendees sit in rows, sing and listen. During the week small groups meet.

Of course he wants to make some changes and do things better, but a lot of it is status quo. This isn’t necessarily bad, but it is a little limited, especially for those of us outside North America where people are less likely to go near a church except for weddings and funerals.

So I think we could to his useful insights a few extra thoughts:

• Some people find the cultural gap between them and church to be large enough that they would find it difficult to ever attend. Something radically different may be best for them – perhaps “Fresh Expressions” or a missional community.
• While he mentions serving the community as a role of the church, perhaps we could learn from a church which is built around microchurches serving a particular sub-community.
• It sometimes seems that the Holy Spirit is the forgotten person of the Trinity in church life. We assume he will be at work without inviting him all that much, and without creating a pathway for people to receive the prayer that allows the Spirit to transform peoples’ lives. There are churches that do this well.

I will be writing more on these matters.

Read more

• 7 Church Trends That Will Disrupt 2024. Carey Nieuwhof.
• Future Church: 8 Church Trends to Watch in 2023. Carey Nieuwhof.
• True stories. Examples of churches and Christians doing things differently, and effectively (on this site).
• The HTB network. A large church we can learn from (also on this site).

Photo by Jace Miller.

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